From league tables to life chances: why continuation matters more than ever

The Guardian University Guide 2026 has once again shone a spotlight on student continuation. For most subjects, continuation accounts for 15% of the overall score – a weighting that can make the difference between moving up or down the rankings. The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide also includes continuation rates as a key metric, using them to reflect student satisfaction and institutional support, though it does not disclose the exact weighting.

Similarly, the Complete University Guide factors in continuation as one of ten core measures in its ranking methodology, underscoring its importance in evaluating student retention and overall university performance.

But continuation is more than just a league-table measure. It reflects the real cost of students leaving higher education early: the tuition income that institutions lose, the reputational damage in an increasingly competitive environment, and the lost human potential when students do not complete their studies.

What continuation means for your ranking

The Guardian calculates continuation as the proportion of full-time first-year, first-degree students still active in UK higher education the following year. Importantly, the score is adjusted for entry qualifications, meaning universities are assessed on whether they are doing better or worse than expected given their intake.

This makes continuation a sharp measure of how well institutions support students once they arrive. Even a one-point shift can move a department or institution noticeably up or down the table.

The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide uses HESA data to track whether students remain in higher education a year after entry. While it doesn’t publish the weighting or adjust scores, continuation is used as a sign of institutional support and student experience.

The Complete University Guide also draws on HESA data, measuring the proportion of young, first-degree entrants who continue, qualify, or transfer. It applies benchmarking for factors such as age, entry qualifications, ethnicity, level of study, and subject mix to enable fairer comparisons.

The financial and human cost of non-continuation

The financial implications behind the league tables are significant. Losing just 1% of a student cohort can equate to millions of pounds in forgone tuition and associated income. When a student withdraws in their first year, universities not only risk losing part of that year’s fee – charged on a pro-rata basis depending on when they leave – but also the tuition income from the remaining years of study. Across a standard three-year degree, that can amount to up to £27,750 in lost income per student.

Multiplied across a cohort, even a modest drop in continuation can quickly translate into millions in foregone revenue. And this is before considering the sunk costs of teaching and support already invested.

The human cost is just as pressing. Students who leave early may not realise their ambitions, and universities lose the chance to deliver on widening participation and social mobility goals. Continuation is therefore as much a measure of institutional mission as it is of performance.

Why continuation is hard to improve

Senior leaders will recognise the complexity of this challenge. Non-continuation often arises from a mix of academic, personal and financial pressures. Barriers to identifying and supporting students include:

Data gaps and delays in spotting students at risk
Limited capacity for academic and pastoral support
Inconsistent coordination across teaching, registry and student services
Wider pressures on student wellbeing and mental health

Without timely insight, interventions can come too late to make a difference.

Using data and analytics to boost student success

This is where learning analytics can play a transformative role, enabling institutions to identify risk factors early. Jisc’s Learning Analytics platform provides the tools for institutions to monitor indicators such as low attendance, lack of engagement with digital learning platforms, and early assessment outcomes.

By providing actionable insights through dashboards and configurable metrics, staff can:

Pinpoint at-risk students before disengagement becomes withdrawal
Manage interventions at course, department or institutional level
Evaluate which support measures are most effective
Align student support and teaching practice with strategic goals

Early intervention is invariably more cost-effective than replacement recruitment. Done well, analytics can deliver both financial savings and improved student success.

What senior leaders can do now to improve student continuation

Audit existing data: review attendance, VLE engagement, and assessment records to spot at-risk students early
Use analytics incrementally: start with available, trusted indicators, then combine multiple data sources to anticipate risks before they escalate
Resource interventions strategically: align staff and services around the students most at risk
Invest in analytics: build capability to turn complex data into actionable insights

Turning continuation from a risk into an opportunity

Continuation will remain a central component of league tables, regulatory attention and institutional reputation. But it is also a window onto something deeper: how well universities deliver on their promise to students.

By investing in the right data and support, universities can reduce financial losses, strengthen their rankings, and most importantly, ensure more students fulfil their potential.

Jisc’s Learning Analytics service is here to help institutions take that step – turning continuation from a risk into an opportunity.

Speak to your relationship manager today to see how data-driven insights can boost continuation and improve student success.

Further information

For more ways universities can use learning Analytics to support student success and meet emerging compliance requirements, see our recent blog on meeting the new international student compliance rules.