Falling postgraduate demand shows why universities need stronger evidence to shape new strategies

With competition rising, universities need strong evidence and sector wide insight to make robust plans for 2026 and 2027.

The latest HESA student release shows a sharp decline in postgraduate taught (PGT) recruitment, with a ten per cent fall in masters entrants and a six per cent fall in international enrolments across the sector. This follows a pattern of year-on-year drops from key markets including India, China and Nigeria, linked to changes in dependant visa rules and wider uncertainty around immigration policy.

While international recruitment has seen sharp declines, domestic taught postgraduate demand has remained static. UK domiciled PGT entrants fell by around 1 per cent in 2023/24 and were broadly flat in 2024/25, shaped by rising living costs and the increased appeal of entering the workforce.

Together these shifts are creating a challenging environment for marketing and recruitment teams. Maintaining postgraduate numbers in 2026 and 2027 will require clear sight of student behaviour and competition across the whole sector.

Changing behaviour and growing competition

Students are making different decisions about when and where to continue their studies. More undergraduates are choosing to stay local, influenced by living costs and the benefits of commuting. Regional collaboration is increasing as institutions strengthen local offers and share resources to support progression into postgraduate study.

At the same time, competition for international students is intensifying. HESA data confirms that recruitment from India and Nigeria has fallen sharply, and overall international postgraduate taught numbers have reduced at the fastest rate across the sector.

These trends underline the need for shared, trusted sector data that can help universities respond quickly and confidently.

What this means for planning and delivery in 2026 and 2027

Operational impact on income planning

Reduced international demand affects fee income resilience. Finance and planning teams will need to model multiple scenarios, balancing subject mix, cohort size and discount strategies, and to stress test exposure to particular source countries. The HESA indicators on falls in international and PGT entrants provide the baseline for these models.

Pipeline management using feeder insight

Understanding undergraduate feeders is now essential. Institutions should identify the programmes and providers that historically convert to postgraduate enrolments, then protect and grow those routes. Sector wide progression data helps pinpoint subjects and regions with higher conversion rates, creating more accurate targeting for campaigns.

Move from commentary to action

Evidence should drive decisions on budget allocation, portfolio focus and market diversification. Early detection of declines in particular subjects or markets enables timely interventions rather than reactive measures at the point of enrolment. The goal is earlier, better-informed planning for 2026 and 2027, supported by up-to-date HESA data.

How discover progression supports better decision making

We developed discover progression: undergraduate to postgraduate to address exactly this challenge. The tool connects undergraduate and postgraduate records across the entire HESA dataset, giving institutions reliable insight into where students come from, where they go next and how progression patterns are changing.

This level of detail is especially important as universities work with tighter budgets and rising recruitment costs. UG to PG progression insight shows which feeders, subjects and regions deliver the strongest conversion, helping institutions focus their limited spend on the audiences most likely to progress. Instead of distributing campaigns and scholarships evenly or relying on historic assumptions, teams can target investment where it has the greatest impact. This supports more efficient planning and helps maintain postgraduate numbers during a period of significant volatility.

Discover progression helps universities to:

• Identify key feeder institutions and subject pathways.
• Understand local and national competition.
• Shape campaigns that reach the right audiences.
• Build regional partnerships informed by evidence.
• Allocate budgets more effectively by focusing resource on the most reliable progression routes.

This sector level view cannot be achieved by a single institution working alone.

New HESA data coming soon

The HESA student data released on 27 January 2026 will be available within discover progression in the coming weeks. Access to the latest HESA data at this point supports more confident forecasting, smarter budget allocation and earlier intervention where markets or subject areas are softening.

Now is the ideal time to sign up so your teams are ready to use the freshest insight as soon as it is added to the platform.

Start using stronger sector insight

If you would like to explore how discover progression can support your postgraduate marketing and recruitment strategy, please contact your Jisc relationship manager.

• See what the data reveals - request a demonstration of discover progression to understand how it connects undergraduate and postgraduate records across the full HESA dataset and highlights your key feeders and competitive pressures.
• Build a clearer strategy with stronger evidence - use discover progression insight to sharpen your forecasting, identify priority subjects and markets, and focus recruitment effort where it will have the greatest impact for 2026 and 2027. Sign up ahead of the next data update so your teams gain immediate access to fresh insight and can intervene early where markets or subject areas are softening.
• Apply insight where it matters most - target subjects, markets and regions with the strongest potential for 2026 and 2027.