A cooling not a collapse: Graduate Outcomes 2023/24
The graduate labour market hasn’t fallen off a cliff. It’s simply adjusting to a slower, more constrained economic environment.
Today’s release of HESA’s Graduate Outcomes data for the 2023/24 cohort gives us the latest, most authoritative picture of how recent graduates are faring in the labour market.
And while the headline figures show a small decline in outcomes, they also challenge one of the most persistent narratives of the past 18 months - that entry-level jobs have been hollowed out by AI and that the graduate labour market has collapsed.
In reality, the data tells a much more measured story. What we’re seeing is a graduate labour market that is more influenced by a subdued wider economy and employers who are unsure and not confident about current economic prospects. After the post-pandemic surge - when graduate recruitment outpaced the economy due to labour shortages - we’re now back to something more familiar: modest growth, limited dynamism, and fewer easy wins for new entrants.
This was both predictable and predicted. Data from the Office for National Statistics, the Bank of England, the Institute of Student Employers, and employer surveys like the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s (REC) vacancy reports have all pointed in the same direction: this is a softer market, not a structural collapse.
This is a softer market, not a structural collapse.
A cooler market for the class of 2023/24
The latest figures reflect that cooling. Overall, 57% of graduates surveyed are in full-time work, down two percentage points on last year and back to levels seen among those graduating into the pandemic-era labour market. Unemployment has ticked up to 7% (from 6%), pointing to weaker conditions, while further study remains steady at 5% full-time and 10% alongside employment.
For first degree graduates, the pattern is almost identical: 55% in full-time work (down from 56%), 11% working alongside study, 6% in full-time study, and unemployment also at 7%.
In historical context, this is difficult but not exceptional. During the last recession, early graduate unemployment exceeded 8% for several years. Today’s figures suggest pressure, but not a downturn on that scale.
Subject variation, but resilient outcomes
Outcomes are not uniform across subjects, but the overall picture remains stable. Geography, journalism and media, and agriculture saw the biggest drops in full-time employment. However, these shifts are not always straightforward: in some cases, such as social geography, fewer graduates entered full-time work but more moved into part-time roles or further study, with unemployment actually falling.
Elsewhere, most subjects saw a modest increase in the proportion of graduates reporting unemployment, with some, such as medicine, veterinary science, education and design reporting a zero percentage point change and as noted, social geography falling.
Despite the softer conditions, the fundamentals hold. Most graduates are in work, further study remains more common than unemployment, and 75% of those in employment are in professional-level roles - (reported as ‘high skilled’ occupations in our tables), only slightly down from 76% last year. While a few subjects saw more noticeable declines, most changes are marginal, and some vocational areas such as medicine and veterinary science even recorded small gains.
Persistent inequalities remain
As ever, outcomes vary across different groups. Women are slightly less likely to be in full-time work than men, but also less likely to be unemployed. Graduates with disabilities face a tougher labour market, with lower full-time employment (50% compared to 58% for those with no known disability) and higher unemployment (7% vs 5%).
These inequalities are longstanding and tend to become more pronounced when the labour market tightens.
The graduate labour market hasn’t fallen off a cliff. It’s simply adjusting to a slower, more constrained economic environment.
A labour market under pressure - not in crisis
Taken together, the data paints a picture of a labour market under pressure, but far from collapse. Outcomes have dipped, but broadly in line with the wider economy. Most graduates are still finding work, many in professional roles, and there’s little evidence of a sudden structural shock to entry-level employment.
The graduate labour market hasn’t fallen off a cliff. It’s simply adjusting to a slower, more constrained economic environment.
Getting help
If the story this year is anything, it’s that the graduate labour market is a little stuck. But there are still opportunities out there, and graduates will continue to have options. But succeeding in a more competitive market means having the right support, guidance and insight.
For deeper analysis, head to Prospects Luminate, where you’ll find detailed breakdowns and practical insight. Our data analytics services also offer the chance to explore Graduate Outcomes data in much greater depth.
And for those wanting to go straight to the source, the full set of accredited official statistics is available via HESA’s HE Graduate Outcomes data release.
About the author
I am the in-house specialist on the graduate labour market. I research and analyse all things to do with post-18 employment, including regional economies, skills supply and demand and postgraduate issues, usually with a careers and employability perspective.