Once you have undergone all of the preparatory work you are in a position to begin to build the scenarios.
In this case, you may want to use one of the various levels of detail already presented here as the scenario sets, given they build from a generic, well-accepted set of global scenarios, up through higher education and ICT to lifelong learning and learning providers. You can use them either as they stand or add further refinement or a particular topical slant to them.
If you are refining these, or building your own scenario set, you can at this stage produce several examples of worst case and best case scenarios – it’s often quantity rather than quality that is useful at the initial stage as you can refine, amend and reduce as a result of discussions in your group as you go along. You may find that a brainstorming or similar technique can help at this stage.
There are several approaches to scenario building available; we find the following approach useful.
The scenarios are constructed by identifying the main driving forces behind the trends identified during the trend analysis stage. Each driving force has an opposing force, therefore effectively forming a pair. The two most important pairs become the axes that carve out the scenarios resulting in four scenarios.
The trends are then mapped onto the scenarios. In order to give a realistic dimension to the scenarios, and help the participants feel actively engaged, you can apply a mix of storytelling, visualisation and enactment techniques. Immersion into the scenario by participants is the best way for the potential impact and consequences of it to be experienced.
The example below shows the ‘Edinburgh scenarios’ – four global perspectives that could inform the future of e-learning which were developed by an international panel.
We recommend running a workshop-type event if you are developing or enhancing existing scenario sets. See our suggested workshop plan for ideas.