How following student journeys can help universities build recruitment resilience

International student recruitment has become increasingly complex. Shifting policy environments, changing student behaviour and growing global competition mean universities need a more nuanced understanding of where their students come from and how they progress through education.

For many institutions, headline recruitment figures only tell part of the story.

To build sustainable recruitment strategies, universities need to understand the routes students take before arriving on a postgraduate course. Which routes are growing? Which routes are becoming more vulnerable? And what does this mean for future recruitment resilience?

These are some of the questions explored in Pathways to Resilience: International students' entry routes into postgraduate study, research led by Janet Ilieva of Education Insights and supported by our data and analytics expertise.

For me, one of the most rewarding aspects of the project was helping develop the analytical approach needed to answer those questions. The work demonstrates how combining trusted sector data with specialist analytical expertise can uncover insights that are difficult, and often impossible, to find through standard reporting alone.

Turning a research question into an analytical framework

Like many impactful research projects, this one began with a straightforward question: how do international students arrive at postgraduate study in the UK?

Answering it was far less straightforward.

Janet had identified an important gap in our understanding of international recruitment. While we know a great deal about enrolments at a particular point in time, much less is known about the journeys students take before they enrol on a postgraduate course.

Working together, we explored how existing HESA data could help answer the research questions. That involved translating broad strategic questions into a robust analytical framework, testing different approaches and refining the methodology to ensure we could accurately identify meaningful student pathways.

The collaborative nature of the project was particularly valuable. Sector expertise, policy understanding and data analysis all informed the development of the final approach. As findings emerged, we were able to test assumptions, validate results and ensure the analysis addressed questions that matter to universities and policymakers.

Looking beyond individual records

The challenge was that no single student record could tell the complete story.

Student records are excellent at describing a particular course of study, but educational journeys often span multiple institutions, countries and years. To understand how students reach postgraduate study, we needed to connect those experiences together.

Using HESA student data and our expertise in data linkage, we developed a methodology that could connect multiple instances of study associated with the same learner. This involved generating a unique learner journey identifier using advanced matching techniques and existing student tracking approaches.

The result was a longitudinal view of student journeys that enabled us to see patterns and pathways that would otherwise remain hidden.

Building a richer picture of international student pathways

The linked dataset allowed us to identify a wide range of entry routes into UK higher education and postgraduate study.

These included:

• direct overseas recruitment
• transnational education (TNE) programmes and progressions from international partnerships
• foundation and pathway programmes
• undergraduate-to-postgraduate progression
• postgraduate-to-postgraduate progression
• returning exchange students

Some of these routes are widely recognised. Others are less visible within conventional sector datasets.

By following students across multiple stages of education, we were able to understand not just where students came from, but how different pathways contribute to recruitment resilience over time.

What the analysis revealed

One of the most significant findings was the importance of route diversification.

While direct international recruitment experienced a notable decline in 2023/24, several UK-linked pathways remained more stable or continued to grow. Progression from TNE activity and pathway provision all played an important role in sustaining postgraduate enrolments.

The analysis also highlighted the growing importance of progression within the UK education system itself.

For postgraduate study, we identified almost 30,000 international students who progressed from an undergraduate qualification completed in the UK. We also found evidence that students are increasingly taking longer between undergraduate and postgraduate study, often entering employment before returning to further their education.

These are the kinds of insights that would have been extremely difficult to identify without linked longitudinal data.

More importantly, they raise strategic questions for institutions. Are universities overly reliant on direct overseas recruitment? Which pathways offer the greatest long-term resilience? Where should future partnership activity be focused?

Why bespoke analysis matters

This project is a good example of a challenge that standard sector statistics cannot answer on their own.

The question was never simply, "How many international students are there and from which countries?"

Instead, we wanted to understand recruitment routes in each country, how students move through the education system, how their behaviour is changing and what those patterns might mean for future recruitment.

Addressing those questions required a bespoke analytical approach, combining linked HESA data with specialist methodological expertise.

That is increasingly the challenge facing universities and sector organisations. The data often exists, but answering complex strategic questions requires the ability to connect datasets, develop appropriate methodologies and interpret findings within a wider sector context.

From data provider to analytical partner

At Jisc, we increasingly support organisations not just through access to data, but through tailored datasets and consultancy that help answer specific business and policy questions.

This project demonstrated what that looks like in practice. Working alongside a leading sector researcher, we helped transform a strategic question into an analytical framework, developed a methodology capable of revealing hidden student pathways and generated evidence that can inform institutional decision-making.

Whether the challenge is understanding student progression, evaluating recruitment pipelines, assessing market opportunities or exploring long-term sector trends, combining trusted data with specialist analytical expertise can unlock insights that standard reporting cannot provide.

Understanding where students come from is important. Understanding the journeys they take to get there can be even more valuable.

Find out more

Do you understand where your postgraduate students come from, which recruitment pathways are growing, or how exposed you are to changes in direct international recruitment?

Many of the most important strategic questions facing higher education cannot be answered through standard sector statistics alone. They require tailored datasets, robust methodologies and specialist analytical expertise.

Our tailored datasets and consultancy services can help you uncover hidden trends, explore student progression and recruitment pathways, evaluate new opportunities, and answer complex policy or business questions with confidence.

To discuss your requirements or explore what might be possible, contact our data and analytics team at data.analytics@jisc.ac.uk.

We'd be happy to help you turn your research question into actionable insight.