JISC

In 2007, JISC contracted CIBIT to develop a scenario toolkit based on their existing work across European business, adding an education and more specifically IT perspective to their generic scenarios by running a series of pilot workshops aimed at higher education project management, and synthesising participants’ contributions. The outputs from this pilot work have been further synthesised and enhanced and are available in the online resource for you to use at a variety of levels.

What is scenario planning?

Scenario planning, or scenario thinking, is a strategic planning tool used to make flexible long-term plans.

Scenarios provide alternative views of the future. They identify some significant events, main actors and their motivations, and they convey different perspectives on how the world functions. Building and using scenarios can help us explore how we might face the future.

Key characteristics

• A methodology for strategy development useful for organisations, programmes or projects acting in a highly dynamic environment taking complex and often risky decisions
• A group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues important to the future of an organisation
• Suitable for any level within an organisation in a variety of contexts
• A creative yet structured approach, popular with marketing managers, programme managers and product developers that are looking for new markets, ideas, services or projects
• Provides rigour as well as opportunities to draw upon the creativity of those involved, resulting in new views and interpretations on important external developments
• Typically involves the development of visual representations of possible futures

Ten tips for successful scenarios...

• Stay focused
• Keep it simple
• Keep it interactive
• Plan to plan and allow enough time
• Don’t settle for a simple high, medium and low
• Avoid probabilities or ‘most likely’ plots
• Avoid drafting too many scenarios
• Invent catchy names for the scenarios
• Make the decision makers own the scenarios
• Budget sufficient resources for communicating the scenarios

From Schwartz, P. and Ogilvy, J. (2004) ‘Plotting your Scenarios: An Introduction to the Art and Process of Scenario Planning’, GBN

...and some traps to avoid

• Don’t treat scenarios as forecasts
• Don’t construct scenarios based on too simplistic a difference – such as optimistic and pessimistic
• Make sure the scenarios are global enough in scope
• Ensure you focus the scenarios in areas of potential impact on the enterprise
• Treat scenarios as an informational or instructional tool rather than for participative learning and/or direct strategy formation
• Ensure adequate process for engaging management teams in the scenario planning process
• Don’t stint on the imaginative stimulus in the scenario design
• Use experienced, or at least well-briefed, facilitator(s)

Applying creativity

Scenario Planning can be used to consider potential issues and situations in a context that provides the luxury of careful thought and iterative planning rather than ‘firefighting’ at the point at which a weakness unexpectedly makes itself known.

Steps to scenario planning

Scenario planning toolkit

In 2007, JISC contracted CIBIT to develop a scenario toolkit based on their existing work across European business, adding an education and more specifically IT perspective to their generic scenarios by running a series of pilot workshops aimed at higher education project management, and synthesising participants’ contributions. The outputs from this pilot work have been further synthesised and enhanced and are available in the online resource for you to use at a variety of levels.

Scenario planning sits alongside a number of other tools that can be useful in the strategic management process, some of which are featured in JISC infoNet’s online Tools and Techniques library. Core infoKits include Risk Management (the scenarios being used to identify possible risks), Portfolio Management (the scenarios being used to shape your portfolio) and Change Management.