Project planning: Risk analysis
All projects have an element of risk. Even in the best-planned projects there are uncertainties, and unexpected events can occurA risk analysis at the start of the project will help you predict the risks that could prevent your project from delivering on time or even failing.
A risk analysis will help you to manage the risks if they occur. It should address:
- What could possibly go wrong?
- What is the likelihood of it happening?
- How will it affect the project?
- What can be done about it?
In any project, the project manager could get ill at a critical time or the building could burn down. Focus on risks related to your particular project, not project management in general. These might be related to:
- Staff What if you can’t hire staff soon enough? What if they don’t have the right skills? What if a key member of the team leaves?
- Organisation What if you can’t get a buy-in from your institution? What if they don’t deliver the support they promised? What if an institution withdraws from your project consortium? What if you can’t get take-up? Could there be cultural problems, e.g. working with vendors?
- Technical What if you can’t get equipment soon enough? What if it costs more than you estimated? What if the methodology doesn’t work?
- External suppliers What if they don’t deliver on time? What if they go bust?
- Legal What if you can’t get permissions from content owners? What if legal agreements take longer than you think? What if there are legal problems with IPR or data protection?
In the project plan template, there’s a table where you can analyse the risks:
- List the potential risks
- Assign a probability to each risk (1 is low, 5 is high)
- Assess the severity should the risk occur (1 is low, 5 is high)
- Give each risk a score (probability times severity)
- For the highest scoring risks, plan how you will prevent them happening (or manage them if they occur)
It’s probably obvious why a risk analysis is done at the start of a project instead of half-way through. This way you can think about the risks that might occur and prevent them from happening. For example, if it’s essential that suppliers deliver on time, make sure your agreement has If a risk does occur, think how you will manage it to minimise its impact on the projectpenalty clauses for late delivery. If it would be devastating for a project partner to leave the consortium, think of ways to keep them on board, and make sure your consortium agreement has clauses for resolving disputes and spells out obligations if one does leave.
You may want to have some contingency in the budget for unforeseen expenses, or some slack in the project schedule in case of delays. If a project partner does leave, think through whether the remaining partners should share the work or recruit another.
Review as you Go
During the project, keep an eye on the risks. Look for early warning signs that indicate a risk is about to occur. If a project partner seems uncommitted and isn’t pulling their weight, someone should have a quiet chat with them off the record. If the project manager doesn’t feel comfortable doing this, ask the programme manager to. The partner may feel their views aren’t being heard at meetings or their work isn’t valued. Get the issue out in the open and take remedial action before they decide to leave the consortium. If the worst happens and a partner leaves, a supplier goes bust, or you can’t get an important buy-in, talk to the programme manager. The chances are it’s happened in another project and s/he can help you with what to do next. |
JISC InfoNet has resources for planning and implementing information systems in
HE/
FE. Their
InfoKit on Risk Management is excellent at explaining what risks are, how to do a risk analysis, and how to manage risks during the project.